Making Predictions and Explaining Likely Outcomes in Spanish

In this lesson, you will make a prediction about a familiar topic and explain the evidence or reason behind it. You will also distinguish a relatively strong expectation from a weaker possibility without introducing a new verb mood.

Start with a clear prediction

— I think it will rain tomorrow.
— I think prices will rise next year.
— I think there will be many people at the event.

Add the reason with porque

— I think it will rain tomorrow because the sky is very dark.
— I think there will be many people because the tickets are almost sold out.

For this lesson, — sold out / exhausted in the context of tickets is useful prediction vocabulary.

Use present evidence

Prediction:

— It is going to rain soon.

Evidence:

— There are very dark clouds and it is starting to get windy.

Linked:

— It is going to rain soon because there are very dark clouds and it is starting to get windy.

Use known information as evidence

— According to the schedule, the last bus leaves at eleven. I think that afterward it will be difficult to return to the hotel by public transport.

Stronger expectation

Use expressions such as:

— probably / surely
— probably

Examples:

— There will probably be traffic at that time.
— We will probably arrive late if we leave at eight.

Weaker possibility without a new mood

You can make the uncertainty explicit with a separate phrase:

— It is possible.

Then state the possible outcome as a separate prediction:

— It may rain in the afternoon.

+ infinitive expresses possibility with familiar grammar.

Do not present an unsupported prediction as a fact

Unsupported:

— The project will finish Friday.

If you do not actually know that, frame it as your expectation:

— I think the project will finish Friday because it is already almost finished.

Explain a simple chain of outcomes

Cause:

— If we leave late, there will be more traffic.

Likely result:

— That is why we will probably arrive after nine.

The next lesson teaches the structure systematically.

Prediction about a familiar service

Person A: — Do you think there will be room at the restaurant?

Person B: — Probably not. It is Friday and the restaurant is very popular.

Prediction with current evidence

Person A: — Are we going to arrive on time?

Person B: — I do not think so. Traffic is stopped and we are still far away.

A practical prediction method

State the predicted outcome.
Add the evidence, current sign, schedule, or known reason.
Use creo que or pienso que when the statement is your expectation.
Use or for a relatively strong expectation.
Use + infinitive for a weaker possibility without introducing a new mood.
Do not present a prediction without evidence as an established fact.
Connect a simple sequence of likely consequences when useful.

From Predictions to Real Conditions

You can now make a prediction and explain why you expect it. The next lesson teaches real open conditions with + present and results in the present, future, or command form.